The theory of change is a representation of the entire value chain of the activity we are evaluating. It includes all the hypotheses and assumptions of how we believe the activity will develop. This theory is the basis for identifying the indicators we will need in the evaluation. It is created by the evaluation team and agreed upon with the initiative’s main actors. On the one hand, it allows the evaluation team to truly know the reality of what it is evaluating and, on the other, to ensure that the actors involved have a common perspective on the evaluation.
Theory of change is a commonly used tool in evaluation plans. References to other examples are included at the right of the page.
Civímetro proposes a theory of change based on this value chain:
Process > Output > Outcome > Impact
The Theory of Change – Patricia Rogers, UNICEF
Describe the Theory of Change, BetterEvaluation
Theory of Change Basics, ActKnowledge