The theory of change is a representation of the entire value chain of the activity we are evaluating. It includes all the hypotheses and assumptions of how we believe the activity will develop. This theory is the basis for identifying the indicators we will need in the evaluation. It is created by the evaluation team and agreed upon with the initiative’s main actors. On the one hand, it allows the evaluation team to truly know the reality of what it is evaluating and, on the other, to ensure that the actors involved have a common perspective on the evaluation.

Theory of change is a commonly used tool in evaluation plans. References to other examples are included at the right of the page.

Civímetro proposes a theory of change based on this value chain:

Process > Output > Outcome > Impact

Process

Consists of the resources (technical, economic, human) and activities that are made available through certain ways of doing things (work protocols, relational dynamics, the centre’s policies, etc.) in the programs that are implemented.

Output

It is the quantity and quality of what is tangibly created from the initiative (prototypes created, events held, number of attendees, etc.).

Outcome

Refers to the changes (transformations, benefits, learning and other impacts) that result from the process: these are the changes that have taken place in people when the initiative comes to an end (number of people who have acquired new skills, improvement in people’s employability, increased motivation and empowerment, changes in the community where the initiative has been developed, creation of new jobs, etc.).

Impact

It is the results that can be attributed to the initiative that is being evaluated. For example, 20% of new jobs created were a direct result of the initiative.

Support Materials

Methodological framework

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The Theory of Change – Patricia Rogers, UNICEF

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Describe the Theory of Change, BetterEvaluation

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Theory of Change Basics, ActKnowledge

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Canvas Theory of Change

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Objectives

  • Determine whether one or various theories of change should be done, taking into account the stakeholders who are the object of the evaluation.
  • Make a realistic and complete reflection on the expected situation that we believe will take place with the initiative we are evaluating.
  • Define starting hypotheses in which unexpected or unplanned aspects can be included, so that later in the measurement we can compare the true situation with the one that was expected.
  • Create and define in detail the large majority of indicators to be used during the evaluation.

Work Sessions

  • Theory of change development session.